RB Leipzig vs Atlético Madrid: predictions and odds

Atlético Madrid dumped out reigning European champions Liverpool in the previous round of the Champions League in March and they should secure a semi-final spot with victory over Leipzig at Lisbon’s Estadio Jose Alvalade.

Atleti knocked out holders Liverpool in the last round and are in the quarter-finals for a fifth time in seven seasons, while Leipzig have made it to this stage for the first time.

Atletico look much more solid, while they’ve got the attacking talents to punish Leipzig. They showed in their success over Liverpool that they can return to their pragmatic best when required, which gives them the edge over the Germans.

Reason for RB Leipzig vs Atlético Madrid predictions:

• Half of Leipzig’s last eight Champions League goals have been penalties.
• Atletico Madrid went 11 games unbeaten in the run-in, including six wins to nil.
• The Spaniards have always progressed from knockout clashes with German sides in this competition.
• Atleti have kept four clean sheets in their last seven in Europe.

Four of RB Leipzig’s last eight goals in the UEFA Champions League have come from the penalty spot, having gained the second-highest number of spot-kicks in the competition this term.

It’s important to remember that Leipzig finished their campaign in late June, claiming just two wins in their final five games. They limped over the line to get top four, as opposed to an Atletico side who look back to their best.

The Spaniards went 11 games unbeaten to secure a top-four finish in La Liga. Of their final 10 games, six of them were won to nil. Atletico look much more solid, while they’ve got the attacking talents to punish Leipzig.

Atletico Madrid have always progressed against German opposition in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (vs Leverkusen in 2014/15 and 2016/17; vs Bayern Munich in 2015/16). In the European Cup era (pre-1992/93), the only time they didn’t prevail was in the 1974 final against Bayern Munich (1-1; 0-4 replay).

Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in three of their last five European matches, while Atleti showed against Liverpool in the first leg that they can strangle the life out of opponents.

We’re going with a 1-0 Atletico Madrid victory as our correct score prediction.